VICTORY OF MAY IS NOT SURE


30/05/2017




İlknur Şebnem Öztemel-TDO- 30.05.2017 Four polls published on Saturday showed that May's victory in upcoming general elections which will be held in 8th of June, is not sure. According to latest polls, Labor Party leaded by Jeremy Corbyn is narrowing the gap with May’s Conservative Party. It is shown that May lost 2 to 6 percentage point, especially after the Manchester Attack on 22nd of May.  

Initially, Opinium which is an online survey conducted by 2002 people in 23-24 May revealed that May’s points slipped to 10 percentage points, down from 13 points the week before and from 19 percentage points on April 19.

Secondly, ComRes said percentage points of Conservatives had fallen to 12 points in an online poll of 2,024 carried out May 24-26, from 18 percentage points in a comparable poll on May 13.

Thirdly, according to ORB which is also an online survey carried out in 24-25 May, shown that May’s points decreased 6. 

Fourthly, YouGov survey indicated that May’s votes narrowed to 7 percentage points from 9 weeks ago.

May called the snap election in order to strengthen her hand in negotiations on Britain's exit from the European Union.  

The Conservatives currently hold 330 of a total 650 parliamentary seats. May claims this small 17 seat majority made it difficult to push ahead with EU negotiations. The early date of elections was a surprise for most of Brits. At the beginning, she enjoyed a head start in the campaign and centralized her strategy to Brexit negotiations. She also drafts increasing the national living wage, introducing new protections for gig economy workers and enforcing worker representation on company boards. Moreover, she spares more funding for mental health care, gas and electricity bills, ‘’new generation’’ of social housing and continue to remain as the ‘’lower tax party’’. Most interestingly, May propose to give another chance for younger to ‘’change their faith’’ and allow them to erase social media messages posted before the age of 18.

On the other hand, Corbyn who currently holds 229 seats in the House of Commons, aims to build a new "partnership" with the EU, including guaranteeing the existing rights of EU nationals and retaining benefits of the single market and customs union. Unlike Conservatives, he has not any commitments on reducing the number of immigrants.  Another difference between approaches of two leaders is on the issue of taxes. Corbyn proposed a £48.6 billion ($62.61 billion) tax plan to pay for his spending plan. This includes lowering the 45p tax threshold to all workers earning over £80,000, rather than £150,000, intends to introduce a new 50p tax for all those earning over £123,000 and raising corporation tax by more than a third to 26 percent by 2022. Additionally, He plans to re-nationalize several public services, including water, railways and the Royal Mail.

At the first date of his campaign, Corbyn said "Theresa May will try to say that this is an election about Brexit while ignoring her government's failure and the issues that affect people's lives every day". Maybe he is right. People may not be persuaded well by only saying ‘’May is necessary for a health period of divorce’’. Combining it with the excessive hesitation in the air and question marks in minds, May’s victory is not sure. This is proven by the recent polls. She has to present something new to guarantee her success. Otherwise, she may lose in her political gamble.

General Elections will be held on the next Thursday. Campaign period interrupted by Manchester attack in which 22 people killed and 59 wounded. It has restarted on Friday and it seems May has to compensate the emotional damage caused by the attack immediately. 


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