Robert Harneis –TDO- (FRANCE)- The results of the Bavarian State elections in Germany brought no comfort to Chancellor Angela Merkel. On a high turnout, her longtime coalition partners the CSU, who have ruled alone in Germany’s biggest and most conservative region since the war, lost their overall majority with 37%. This is their worst result since1950. The other coalition allies the SPD saw their vote more than halved to 9.7%. The left leaning Green party did well with 17%. The anti-immigration anti-Euro Alternative for Germany Afd party went from no seats to 10% of the vote and 22 seats.

Worst of all for Merkel was that the right as a whole did well with a total of 63% of the vote. The Left as a whole on the other hand achieved a historically low total of 34%. Put simply the electors want right and center right policies but not Angela Merkel. She has in her 13 years in power drifted steadily to the left and in so doing gradually parted company with her supporters. The crunch point was the 2015 immigration fiasco when she allowed one million illegal immigrants into the country on her sole initiative, after steadfastly supporting the wars that caused the inflow. Her support for the Euro has done her no good either, as Germans nervously watch southern European economies steadily build up a trillion euros of interest free Target 2 balances with little hope repaying them.

The State of Hesse are due to hold their regional elections on 28 October. The polls indicate that the government coalition will do no better there. If this prediction is born out in the polling booths the German Chancellor could see the end of career at the CDU annual congress in December, when Merkel will seek re-election as party chairwoman - a bid senior conservatives have backed so far despite the parliamentary party ousting her ally, Volker Kauder, as leader last month. 

Across the Rhine in France President Macron will have watched with concern the consolidation of parties supported by electors that are increasingly Euro-sceptic and hostile to the reforms he proclaimed when he was elected, reforms that would involve Germany in financing southern Europe, directly or indirectly.


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