IS IRAN RESHAPED?


27/11/2016





It has been a year since 14th July 2015 was noted on the history with an important agreement that is related to all the world. Exactly one year ago, Iran that continues its nuclear program without any compromise in spite of the U.S. embargo finally met in a common point on its nuclear program with 5 super powers and signed an agreement. According to Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) which is signed between Iran and the United Nations Security Council permanent members, U.S.A., United Kingdom, France, Russia and Germany, while Iran is accepting the controlled entrance of U.N. International Atom Energy Agency into its military bases, these super powers accepted to stop the financial and economic sanctions on Iran.After this one year, nor Iran neither the World were a bed of roses. Toman devalued because of the sanctions before the agreement kept its fall toward its lowest value against U.S Dollar. Increasing inflation, Iran petrol prevented to reach World market, difficulties in trade and closed economy, they all showed how sustainable not adapting the liberal policies in 21st century politics are. Today, in case Iran adopts liberal, secular, west oriented policies, not 1 year, decades might be required for the transformation process. Not only for Middle East but also for the World countries, to cut its ties with or revise their ideologies lead developments and results that require many years that can be observed only on generations.In the last one year, positive approached about Iran by some neighboring countries and some Western countries, opportunities that was aroused as a result of closer Iran to the World, possible investments in sectors such as energy, mining, tourism, finance was started to be discussed and planned. Banking agreements signed with European countries such as Greece, Switzerland and Germany by Iran, improving trade deals with the East and the West can be assessed as a new page in Iran’s history. On the other hand, Iran oil and natural gas able to be sold to the World remains its importance as a major point in the agendas. It is better to say all the developments are the beginning of a transformation that will last long years. In fact, the voice of oppositions and who complains about the agreement made and economic problems increased considerably.In the first quarter of 2016, Iran economy was far from the expectations with 0.06% growth rate. While the oil revenues were significantly increasing, a growth rate in such a low level brought doubts. Although the world is willing to make trade with Iran, the possibility of return the sanctions or the possibility of that the agreement may cause a new crisis prevents a confident environment and the flow of the foreign funds toward to Iran. Iranian leader Rouhani still claims that Iran can meet the 5% growth rate at the end of the year. There are no doubts Iran needs revisions on its financial and legal infrastructure regardless of the success or fail in the growth rates.While Iran is in such a condition, neighboring countries and especially Saudi Arabia indicate their strong attitudes toward Iran and share the same opinion that this nuclear agreement will harm the Middle East. Also, Israel thinks that maybe not now but in 15 years, Iran will become a greater danger with the sanctions were removed. The most important reason why these opinions occurred is now Iran has the possibility to reach its restrained revenues in different countries of the World. The claim that is very open to speculation and that Iran’s funds in foreign countries exceed 150 billion dollars was kept to be discussed heatedly and with different figures after the agreement too. Some say the figure that Iran will collect is about 25 billion dollars while some say the figure is around 175 billion dollars after the sanctions. Whatever the figure is, it seems hard that all the funds will flow instantly. While Iran is slowly opening toward the world, these funds are expected to be spent for the investment projects will made in Iran. The actual fear is that Iran which is able move freely in financial and trade systems after the remove of sanctions will transfer the billions of dollars to the arms and become more powerful than ever. According to a statement Russia made just after the agreement announced, there is no need to wait more to make arm trade with Iran and if required Iran can buy arms as soon as possible. According to some, this agreement means transformation of Iran, adaptation to capitalist system, diminish of powerful side of Iran which based on terrorism and armed forces while others think this agreement is a kind of deception and Iran will reborn as more powerful and with more arms. Today, it can be said that all those speeches and ideas are only theories. If we consider this agreement as a beginning of a transformation, we should state that we cannot assess the social, political and economic transformation in only one year. It is not hard to guess that those who say that Iran is going to worsen are aware that one year is not enough to reach such as conclusion. Therefore, while Middle East and the world politics are going toward a new shape, to know what the countries and their representatives have in their mind, what the actual plans are, who is sincere who is not and what is the best for the people of countries we must deeply know about religion, philosophy, world history, sects, politics, and 21st century world order. Undoubtedly, it is necessary to act by considering the headlines which are shaping the new world. It is sad that peace, sharing, and wellbeing of humanity are not the priority. We will all see whether the world history will repeat or not. Mithat Kemal Ýman

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