WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH IRAN AFTER OBAMA?





Laying aside almost half a century of American foreign policy, President Obama has taken significant and controversial steps in Cuba, Iran, Vietnam, Japan, Afghanistan and Iraq.Obama’s strategy during his second term in office gave the impression of the USA preparing for the struggle it will engage with China in the Far East. It is undoubtedly rational for the USA to have to battle on as few fronts as possible while dealing with China, the economic and military giant which it cannot seem to halt.On the other hand, it should be said that the controlled politics and reduction in tensions foreseen by Obama has not met with sufficient domestic political or public support in the USA.Those who followed the 5+1 negotiations with Iran a year ago will remember that Iran’s promise to give up on its nuclear arms programme had been celebrated as victory by the supporters of both the West and of Iran. But is it possible for sides which begrudgingly sit down at the negotiating table and try to compromise as little as possible to both emerge victorious? Is there a referee who can decide whether the USA, “the policeman of the world” has won the last round against Iran? The effects of the treaty on Iran have not turned out as expected. The predicted flow of capital to Iran with the lifting of sanctions has remained well below foresights. State governments and finance institutions in the USA still have a deep seated mistrust of Iran and the improvement in relations is not up to the president alone. While these may look like bureaucratic difficulties, the continuation of the effects of sanctions is causing unrest in Iran. Another aspect of this tough stance in the USA’s domestic dynamics is the existence of a strong structure that acts contrary to what Obama and his supporters hold. In the coming elections, this structure is likely to rally behind Donald Trump.
What has so far gone unvoiced is that the changing political approaches may bring unwanted suffering to the world, including the USA, once Obama leaves office.
Ýlker Yýlmaz

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