Şimal Çınar –TDO- According to an official document named EU Exit Analysis – Cross Whitehall Briefing, which was dated January 2018 and was meant to be confidential but was leaked, there are three different possible scenarios of Brexit and all of them leave UK worse off. In the first one, a free trade agreement can be made with EU which will cause the national income to decrease 5%. The second scenario is that Britain would maintain a single market membership over a 15-year-period which will cause a 2% decrease and a no deal scenario would mean the national income will be 8% lower. The document also suggested that all regions of UK will be affected negatively, especially in the sectors of chemicals, clothing, manufacturing, food and drink, and cars and retail in all scenarios.
Upon this Chris Leslie, a Labor MP and supporter of the Open Britain group that campaigns against Brexit told in a public release that “Their own impact assessments underline what has long been obvious, that their reckless plan to crash out of the single market and the customs union will leave us all much worse off.” Eloise Todd, the chief executive of anti-Brexit organization Best for Britain, added: “Behind these numbers are thousands of jobs, businesses and homes that are at risk.”
The circles who are pro-Brexit however objected to the conclusions that are driven by these data. They claim that the document doesn’t consider the bespoke trade deal or the deals which are aimed to be formed with non-EU countries such as US, China, India, Australia, Gulf countries and the Southeast Asian countries.